Read part one here and part two here.
The death of strategic baseball
Ultimately, baseball is a game of strategy. A chess match between managers and players. Two of the most important strategic weapons in a manager’s arsenal are bunts and stolen bases. Not surprisingly, in this era of the longball, the number of both bunts and stolen bases is falling. And in the case of sacrifice bunts, falling off a cliff.
The sacrifice bunt has been sacrificed to the god of the longball.
Sacrifice bunts are never going to draw crowds. Hardly a controversial statement, I realize. However, they are an important tool in any manager’s toolbox. If a team is down a run late in the game, getting that leadoff runner over to second is vital. Do managers now just expect to blast a two-run homer and go for the win rather than play for the tie and possible extra innings? Does bullpen usage enter into the equation? Is losing a close game in nine innings preferable to winning a 15-inning game that burns through multiple relief pitchers? Maybe I’m just being cynical now, but I do wonder.
The use of the sacrifice bunt has been in decline since 1971, remember there were only 24 teams then, but there were almost 200 more sacrifice bunts in 71 with 24 teams than in 2001 when there were 30 teams. Quite a drop to be sure, but in 2021 the number of bunts absolutely cratered. A total of 766 sacrifice bunts in 2021?! A 57% drop in the span of 50 years. The veterans of that era of baseball must not recognize the game today.
Of all of the stats I have looked at in my research, this is the most dramatic change. Just 10 years ago, in 2011, there were 1667 sac bunts, but a paltry 776 in 2021. Over 50 years, from 1971 to 2011, the mean was 1624 bunts per season. Amazing. In 2021 teams averaged .16 bunts per game. You could watch an entire homestand and maybe see two sacrifice bunts in those 9 or 10 games.
Station to station or swing for the fences
The second weapon relegated to the dustbin of baseball history is the stolen base. In 2021, only five teams surpassed the 100 stolen bases mark with the Kansas City Royals leading the league with 124 steals. In 1982, in a 26-team league mind you, the Oakland A’s led the league with 232 stolen bases and 18 teams had over 100 steals. The league average in 1982 was 122 steals, just two fewer than the ’21 Royals. Hell, Rickey Henderson alone had more stolen bases, 130, than the entire Kansas City team in 2021.
Personally, I love the stolen base. The cat and mouse game between the base-runner and the battery is one of the more interesting sub-plots in the game. The pitch-outs, checking the runner at first, and the pick-off attempts at second base display are prime examples of the strategic aspect of the game. And when that runner takes off for second or third, it’s thrilling. However, I have a feeling that I am alone or significantly outnumbered at least in this opinion. Just listen to the crowd boo and complain after a pitcher throws over to first base more than twice. Short attention spans, rather than how the game is played, may actually bring about the death of baseball.
So what has changed? Why have managers eschewed the stolen base? Is the risk of losing a baserunner too great. Just get a man on and then have the next guy swing for the fences? Is it money? Is the risk of losing a player making millions of dollars a year due to broken fingers and jammed wrists just too much for a manager or GM to stomach? Maybe the managers are ceding control of managing the game to the front office. Rampant speculation on my part I realize, but I think it is not out of the realm of possibility.
One interesting note from the stats is that the game seems to be trending towards how it was played in 1961 at least in regards to stolen bases. In 1961 teams stole one base in a three-game series, whereas in 2021 it was about one bag every other game. And actually, in 2022, the trend is moving upwards to .51 stolen bases per game. Maybe there is hope for the stolen base yet. It has a long way to go to reach those halcyon days of the 80s with Rickey Henderson, Tim Raines, and Lonnie Smith flying around the base paths.
In the future, I think I will compare how baseball is played here in Japan with how the MLB plays now. The game here more resembles how baseball was played in the 70s and 80s than its current iteration in the US.
Rolling Tsuchinoko 