Is baseball dying? Second in a series

First in the series here.

If baseball is indeed on its last legs and on its way out, baseball historians might come to the conclusion that this one issue, the lack of hits, led to its ultimate demise. Sure, baseball has always been the slowest of the team sports, but it’s not the pace of the game that is to blame, it is purely the lack of action. There is just too much standing around and way too many strikeouts, an issue I addressed in the first installation of this series.

Strikeouts are indeed a problem, in my mind, the biggest problem with modern-day baseball, and logically, if there are more Ks, that means there are fewer hits. Fewer hits, more standing around. How bad is it getting? Well, here are the charts.

1961	1971	1982	1991	2001	2011	2021
25202	32680	37791	36694	44019	42404	39614
1400	1361	1453	1411	1467	1413	1320

Year/Total number of hits/Average hits per team

The late 90s and early 2000s were the apex of hitting in MLB. Of course, those years do have a giant asterisk hanging over them. Bonds, Sosa, and McGwire were hitting the ball out of the park with alarming frequency, possibly* with the help of advanced chemistry. But were steroids the only reason there were more hits and home runs in that era? Ichiro Suzuki led the league in 2001 with 242 hits. It would be difficult to accuse the wafer-thin Ichiro of juicing.

Hits peaked in 2001, and have steadily decreased since. However, they fell off a cliff in 2021. Almost 3000 fewer hits in a decade is a dramatic decrease. I believe that these three factors have led to the decline in hits.

• Pitching, especially bullpen management
• The shift and analytics
• Batter’s attitude towards striking out

Pitching

Pitching and the way managers organize their bullpens has changed over time. Starters come out of the game much earlier. Starters are on an 80 to 100 pitch count. The reason given is that it is meant to take the stress off the arms of these high-priced starters. But one of the unintended consequences may be that starters throw at max effort for the entire start, thus putting just as much or more strain on their arms. Managers squeeze six innings out of the starter and then it’s nothing but flamethrowers for the 7th, 8th, and 9th innings. I blame the Kansas City Royals for this strategy. It worked for them and got them a World Series in 2015, but it seems to have negatively influenced the game.

You will never see this again

The shift

Baseball has always been a game of numbers, but analytics has taken it to a new level. Baseball looks more like a computer simulation than a live sport at times. Analytics has led to the shift. Extreme pull hitters now have three infielders on one side of the field and in extreme cases, three outfielders on one side of the outfield. At least baseball has recognized the problem and has banned the use of the shift starting in 2023. If I’m still around in 2031, I’ll update the graphs and see where the game is.

Batting averages for the league leaders have been over .300 since 1961, and well over in 2001, thanks Ichiro, but in 2021, it came close to dipping under the banner .300 mark. I wonder how much the juiced ball and juiced players drove up not only home runs but also singles and doubles?

1961	1971	1982	1991	2001	2011	2021
.316	.316	.309	.313	.327	.314	.302

Year/Batting average for the top 25 batters

Strikeouts

The way batters approach hitting has changed over the years as well. Old school players did not like striking out. George Brett; ‘The one thing I can’t stand is striking out. I hate it.’ But I don’t feel there’s that attitude today towards the strikeout.” Tony Gwynn; “I hate striking out. I’d rather hit a one-hopper to the pitcher.” Reggie Jackson; “I struck out more times than anyone in the history of the game, almost 2,600 times, but I did it over 20 years. That’s 125 strikeouts per year. … A leadoff guy today strikes out 125 times. It’s not productive. The game has changed so much, and for the worse.”

This video is a little reminder of how exciting baseball can be when the ball is put in play.

I don’t know if baseball will be able to address the multitude of issues that are contributing to its decline. Many of the problems are systemic to the game now. How are you going to change player’s attitudes toward hitting? The players in the game now will be the coaches and managers of the future. One positive aspect is that the shift will be outlawed soon, which should contribute to a few more hits, but if players keep striking out, it won’t matter where infielders are standing. I don’t see attitudes towards how pitchers are managed changing much. Maybe there is just no saving the game. I hope I’m wrong.